17 thoughts on “Gain Capital: deal recut highly likely, option-like upside payout in 3 weeks

    • Hi Thomas – many thanks for your support! My apologies for that; I am working to fix it but for now there should be two buttons on the article. Can you please try accessing on the second one (should be monthly login) now? If it still doesn’t work, please email me directly at jeremy.raper@gmail.com, I will keep working on it.

  1. For a monthly subscription – does the subscription automatically renew? If so, how to avoid such automatic renewal? Many thanks.

    • hi there – yes it renews automatically, but if you aren’t happy with the product you can cancel at any time after the first month.

      • hi there – hopefully you will decide the service is worth the monthly subscription, and decide to stay a subscriber. however, if not, you can cancel at any time during the first month and you will not be charged thereafter (after month 1). please email me with any further questions!

  2. Congrats on the new service! Oddly, since I’ve signed up I’ve never been asked for a password.

    On GCAP, I had a few thoughts (and I have put on a position).

    1) If this goes to a vote and the management group sticks to it’s agreement, I think the deal will get the required vote. It might be the case that 20% of the shares have turned over and are held by parties that can’t vote (i.e., a no vote), but of the remainder a large amount look to be held by index funds and similar ilk that will simply vote with management unless someone makes a fuss. This deal really emphasizes the advantages of a “majority of the minority” vote.
    2) The deal really needs action on the part of the BoD. It would be really nice if the deal had support of an activist. I’m not familiar with JB Capital, but they don’t seem to have taken any action to bring this to the attention of other shareholders, etc. Am I correct? Any chance that you would take a more active role? You have done 90% of the work in your article. Now you have to get it out to a wider group of investors. How about forwarding it to the ambulance chasers that have filed class action suits regarding the deal? It would certainly improve the chances of the BoD and management killing or renegotiating the transaction if they knew there were going to be significant consequences to going through with it.

    Good luck with the new service.

    Tom

    • hi tom – many thanks for subscribing! its great to have you onboard and to reconnect after all these years.

      thanks also for your keen points. re the former – I would contend that whilst what you are correct if it goes to a vote, the main point is that INTL is risking so much for so little if they don’t just give back some excess value pre vote. why take the risk on losing the vote and the deal when they can simply give a little bit back and still acquire this thing at a below-bargain basement price? i don’t see why they wouldn’t just do this to avoid taking even the small chance of losing out on a killer deal (that is extremely meaningful size-wise to their company).

      as for point two – you are right, I will canvas the class action lawyers. do you also think I should forward this research to the GCAP board as well?

      thanks again and speak soon,
      jeremy

  3. Jeremy,

    I think forwarding it to the BoD is a great idea, also the CFO and if internal legal counsel (if they have one).

    Best,

    Tom

    • great thanks Tom – this has been done on both accounts (class action lawyers and to the company. am trying to get a line in directly to the BoD/internal counsel as well).

  4. Hi, I can’t log in either. Can you please email me the article too?

    I had to put in a different email as I could not post the comment without logging in, but I subscribed via my other email.

    Cheers,

    JB

  5. Jeremy,

    Does the following good news/bad news impact your thinking? 2 more BoD members have joined the dissenting vote, but the BoD reaffirmed it’s recomendation to go through with the transaction in a 5-3 vote on 5/14.

    best,

    Tom

    • hi Tom – I saw this. its quite disappointing in a way but I am not giving up. it seems the board vote was taken because two directors changed their minds; there is still the opportunity for another director (hopefully) to change his mind and so throw the issue up again. Also, there is still likely to be pressure from this change upon INTL to increase the consideration, even modestly, given it at least throws doubt onto the vote outcome in early June.

      I have not heard back from the company or the lawyers, yet…

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