I recently appeared on Jan Svenda's podcast, World of Short Selling. You can find the link here: https://shortselling.podbean.com/e/episode-13-jeremy-raper/ We cover both methodology and a lot of current ideas I like (as well as historical pitfalls, successes, and lessons!) Regular readers will be familiar with some of the names covered, but we discuss Westshore, Nio, Tesla, … Continue reading How I find shorts – podcast with Jan Svenda

I own shares in Aercap (NYSE: AER), the largest aircraft lessor in the world, for many reasons (some of which I have discussed here and here on this blog, for example). This is not an article about AER so much as an article about dispersion and inconsistency in how the market is pricing various sectors … Continue reading Random thoughts on the internal inconsistency of the stockmarket

I first wrote up Westshore Terminals (Toronto: WTE) as a short in March last year. You can read the article here. The thesis was basically that this formerly-excellent coal-handling business would be structurally impaired once Teck Resources, a 60% customer, moved the bulk of their volumes to their own terminal, Neptune, from 2021; and that … Continue reading Westshore update: the writing is on the wall

Rarely do I still own, let alone write up, stocks that have doubled in a couple of months,  so Gan Plc (LSE: GAN) is very much an exception for me. But what would you pay for a software services company growing revenues >100%; where >50% of those revenues are already recurring in nature; where the … Continue reading GAN Plc: explosive mid-term growth + attractive technical setup still not priced in

I was recently on The Intelligent Investing Podcast with Eric Schleien. Eric is the founder of Granite State Capital Management and a fellow value investor. You can listen to the full episode here. We covered many of the names I think are of most interest at the moment (Aercap, Shinoken, Gan Plc, Nio, etc) as well as my … Continue reading Podcast debut – my investment philosophy, Japanese stocks, AER, Shinoken, GAN, NIO and more with Eric Schleien

Its close enough to year end to check in on how the ideas I've presented during the year have performed, and to update where we stand on the various theses presented. The below table summarizes the overall performance of each idea since publishing, along with benchmark performance, and alpha (outperformance vs the benchmark). Note, this … Continue reading Taking stock of 2019: idea performance and thesis updates

K+S (SDF, listed in Germany), is a great mid-term structural short, because it is the highest-cost producer of scale in a global commodity market (potash) that is likely entering a multi-year downturn, all while being saddled with an incredibly levered balance sheet (4.5x net/6.2x adjusted) and burning cash. The sources of its uncompetitiveness are largely … Continue reading K+S: how hard will the potash downcycle bite?