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NIO
Reshaping the book for the ‘great rotation’ (part one)
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More on NIO: the devil is in the details
A month ago I broke down the Nio/Hefei transaction that purported to put a high valuation on Nio's China business, suggesting that US investors and bondholders were probably being fleeced. With the release of Nio's 20-F annual filing, we can now definitively conclude that the Hefei 'Strategic Transaction' is nothing more than an asset strip, … Continue reading More on NIO: the devil is in the details
Nio update: restructuring deal implies max $1.3/shr of ADR value…
Everyone's least favorite electric car manufacturer, Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO), is at it again. Yesterday they announced their long-awaited capital partnership with the local Hefei government; the stock promptly rallied 20%, before fading to close +10%. A closer look at the terms of the transaction, however, suggest a horrible deal for current ADR owners. I … Continue reading Nio update: restructuring deal implies max $1.3/shr of ADR value…
NIO update: still short, still a zero
I have written about NIO (NYSE: NIO), everyone's favorite cash-guzzling EV company, a couple of times (see here, here and here). The company just reported in 4Q'19 numbers and I thought it would be worthy of a check in to see if anything with the original bearish thesis had changed (TL;DR - it's actually worse than before). … Continue reading NIO update: still short, still a zero
Podcast debut – my investment philosophy, Japanese stocks, AER, Shinoken, GAN, NIO and more with Eric Schleien
I was recently on The Intelligent Investing Podcast with Eric Schleien. Eric is the founder of Granite State Capital Management and a fellow value investor. You can listen to the full episode here. We covered many of the names I think are of most interest at the moment (Aercap, Shinoken, Gan Plc, Nio, etc) as well as my … Continue reading Podcast debut – my investment philosophy, Japanese stocks, AER, Shinoken, GAN, NIO and more with Eric Schleien
Taking stock of 2019: idea performance and thesis updates
Its close enough to year end to check in on how the ideas I've presented during the year have performed, and to update where we stand on the various theses presented. The below table summarizes the overall performance of each idea since publishing, along with benchmark performance, and alpha (outperformance vs the benchmark). Note, this … Continue reading Taking stock of 2019: idea performance and thesis updates
Capital structure arbitrage, part deux – the curious case of Nio Inc
I have written about capital structure arbitrage - trading the stock and bonds of one company against each other if the prices don't make internal sense - previously with regard to Peabody Energy when it was about to file for bankruptcy (see here). I commented at the time that the equity price seemed insanely overvalued … Continue reading Capital structure arbitrage, part deux – the curious case of Nio Inc
NIO follow-up: fun and games in the 20-F
Due to the enthusiastic response to my first missive on NIO, I thought I would delight all my fans 🙂 with a quick follow-up post the 20-F (annual report) filing today. Here are my main takeaways; the overarching conclusion remains 'alarm bells are ringing' and if anything I think the cash needs at the company … Continue reading NIO follow-up: fun and games in the 20-F
NIO: this will end in tears
Forget where the stock has come from and the fact that it is already down 50% from the highs. NIO (NIO, listed on the NYSE), the recently-listed Chinese BEV name, is a hype-driven, cash-incinerating JOBS-act IPO that may qualify as the best poster child for ZIRP's distortionary capital allocation effect when the history books get … Continue reading NIO: this will end in tears