I am excited to announce the launch of Raper Capital Pro. Going forward, the majority of content you would normally find on RaperCapital.com will be behind a paywall, for the benefit of Pro subscribers. If you are ready to subscribe, you can do so here – thank you for your support!
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If you are new to the blog or otherwise as yet unconvinced, please keep reading 🙂
- Proven superior track record over many years: since 2015, I have cumulatively published ~50 investment theses across both sides of the market (long and short), generating an average annualized return 43% (and 31% average alpha versus relevant benchmarks) with a 75% ‘win rate’ (ratio of profitable ideas to total ideas). All these ideas remain time-stamped and in the public domain (mostly on my blog or on sites like Seeking Alpha) – I believe the record speaks for itself, both in terms of the absolute returns generated but particularly the alpha (that, is the outperformance versus market benchmarks). You can see the full summary of my idea performance here.
- Differentiated methodology, differentiated ideas: I have a different perspective on most equity-market participants, in that I utilize a creditor’s mentality when looking at stocks. This approach is necessarily much more skeptical, balance-sheet driven, and lends itself as much to shorting/hedging downside as looking at long opportunities. Since the approach is differentiated, the ideas I find are disparate and tend to be under-covered or under-followed (to your benefit). You can learn more about my methodology here.
- Deep fundamental analysis presented in a cogent, accessible format: regular readers will know that the majority of my blog posts are detailed expositions of a fundamental investment thesis, built upon many hours of research. I will not shy away from long writeups and/or including numbers and charts, but I strive to make writeups both accessible and digestible, for professional and interested retail investors alike.
- Creating value on both sides of the market: a core part of my skillset is in identifying troubled businesses or unsustainable capital structures that may result in zero or very little equity value – that is, terminal shorts. Whilst shorting individual stocks is not for everyone, adding the ability to profit from lower stock prices through shorting offers a potential hedge against simply strapping in hoping the market keeps going up forever.
Why launch a paid service now?
When I began this blog back in 2015, writing was an outlet for me to clarify and express an investment thesis; to solicit feedback from other investors; and, over time, to build an intellectual ‘track record’ of sorts regarding my investment research acumen. Six years later, after many years of proving my bona fides as an idea generator and analyst – entirely for free – I feel it is only right to share in the value I create. Accepting paying subs now will allow me to do this, whilst also providing me the financial freedom to spend more time pursuing new companies, doing more differentiated research, and finding high-conviction investment ideas. This will in turn make the product better and, I hope, provide further superior returns for subscribers.
What will the paid service look like?
The format going forward will be quite similar to what regular readers of Raper Capital have come to know (and love :P). I try to post around once a week, or four times a month. More specifically, this tends to comprise:
- One novel, fully-researched and fleshed-out investment thesis per month (on average – this will necessarily be a bit lumpy as opportunity dictates);
- At least 2-3 other posts per month, including follow-up on previous ideas/theses; general market commentaries; quicker/shorter ideas that may be extremely time-sensitive;
- These ideas encompass both long and short ideas, and focus on developed market stocks globally;
- There will be an occasional discussion of non-equity instruments (fixed income, converts, other debt, derivatives, etc) – though this is not the core of the offer.
Additionally, I will be responsive to questions/comments on posts (as I have tried to be historically) – but please don’t expect real-time responses 24/7. This remains an idea blog at its core, and is meant to serve as the basis for sophisticated, self-directed investors to do their own in-depth research.
How did you decide on the pricing structure?
The service will cost $175/month or $1500/year (that is, a ~30% discount for an annual commitment). Whilst I realize this is not cheap for most all retail readers, I took the following factors into consideration:
- This is not a service targeted at small retail investors. Most of my readers are either high-net worth individuals (investing >$250k or more in the stock market), or small to large institutions. Comparable research of this quality will generally run many multiples of the price of this service;
- Given my idea track record and the idea generation I am providing here, simply investing $10k per idea at historical performance averages (75% success rate, 43% annualized return) and assuming one idea per month and -50% for the losers (pretty punitive) would still imply a 16x return on the investment ($23.7k net profits vs $1.5k cost for this blog). In reality, I fully expect most of my readers will in aggregate deploy far larger sums of capital than this. DISCLAIMER: this is no guarantee of performance; past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Will you still publish free content?
Yes, I will endeavor to still publish some free content – though clearly all the highest-conviction ideas and analysis will be exclusively for Pro subscribers. Obviously, the amount of free content I publish will go down considerably.
Will you offer a free trial?
No. My idea track record and the amount of content I have out in the public domain should speak to the type of offering you should expect.
Will you offer refunds?
No. As per above, all my legacy content going back to 2015 remains on the site and available for public access. Any would-be subscribers should have a complete picture of what the service entails and the types of ideas/research that will be presented, before making the purchase decision. Further, I am a one-man band trying to run a small business – I need to use every waking moment creating value-added premium content for my subscribers. Processing refunds and returning payments is (as I have learnt recently) extremely time-consuming when I could be doing more investment research to make the service better. Thank you in advance for your understanding.
What happens if you take another buy-side job?
In the event I move to full-time, professional money-management, I will pro rata refund any remaining time period of subscription for all current subscribers (assuming I am no longer able to publish the blog).
Where can I find more information?
Please see here for my investment track record; here for my investment philosophy/approach; here for more general information; and here for the site disclaimer.
Any further questions can be sent to me directly via email at email@example.com.
Thanks again for all your support, please keep reading and I do hope you become a subscriber to Raper Capital Pro!