361 Degrees: June’21 dollar bonds yield 13-14% but should be money good

361 Degrees (1361.HK) is an HK-listed Chinese shoe and sports clothing retailer. You can read about the company and see their products here. I stumbled across their 7.25% Jun'21 USD bonds, which currently trade around 93.5 - 13% yield, 1.25 years to maturity - and was expecting to see a highly leveraged, distressed business (like … Continue reading 361 Degrees: June’21 dollar bonds yield 13-14% but should be money good

Tupperware Brands: the bonds have (potentially a lot) further to fall

I posted a tweet thread a week or so ago on Tupperware Brands (TUP) - you can see the thread here, but the thesis was essentially that the short-dated Jun'21 TUP bonds ($600mm outstanding), then at 99.5c, didn't anywhere discount the possibility of a needed restructuring of the company, given the leverage picture; the deterioration … Continue reading Tupperware Brands: the bonds have (potentially a lot) further to fall

Shinoken update: the story keeps getting better, still a double and more

I wrote up Shinoken (8909.JT, listed in Tokyo) here about 6 months ago. At the time the stock was trading at <4x earnings, <3x EV/EBIT and at a considerable discount to replacement cost, due to the overhang of a number of scandals in the build-to-let apartment industry in Japan and a misunderstanding of the company's … Continue reading Shinoken update: the story keeps getting better, still a double and more

McDermott defaulted debt: a compelling speculation

Summary: I am long the McDermott 10.625% ’24 defaulted senior notes, which trade around 12.5-13c currently. At this level I believe you are creating the recapitalized MDR equity at a low multiple of likely trough EBIT/EBITDA in FY21E – 4x EV/EBITDA, 5x EV/EBIT – with a free look at bargain basement multiples (1.5x EV/EBITDA, 1/7x … Continue reading McDermott defaulted debt: a compelling speculation