100% revenue growth and explosive long-term trajectory at only 7x EBIT and 10x P/E – this German small-cap should triple (and keep going)

(Please note: going forward, titles and the introductory paragraph to new idea write-ups will not include the name of the given company being analyzed. This is to further protect and enhance the value of the idea discovery being offered to subscribers) What if I told you there was a small company growing extremely quickly in … Continue reading 100% revenue growth and explosive long-term trajectory at only 7x EBIT and 10x P/E – this German small-cap should triple (and keep going)

More on NIO: the devil is in the details

A month ago I broke down the Nio/Hefei transaction that purported to put a high valuation on Nio's China business, suggesting that US investors and bondholders were probably being fleeced. With the release of Nio's 20-F annual filing, we can now definitively conclude that the Hefei 'Strategic Transaction' is nothing more than an asset strip, … Continue reading More on NIO: the devil is in the details

Mark to market: catching up on GAN, WTE, AER, Gold, Tankers, BFAM, and more

(Advance note: thanks again to all new and returning premium subscribers. I highly recommend all subscribers follow me on Twitter @puppyeh1 as I do endeavor to live-tweet key changes in my views/trading positions in any name I have written up.) This will be a bit of a ‘grab bag’ post, intended to catch up new … Continue reading Mark to market: catching up on GAN, WTE, AER, Gold, Tankers, BFAM, and more

Gain Capital: deal recut highly likely, option-like upside payout in 3 weeks

It's not every day I consider buying a deal stock trading at an 8% premium to the agreed deal price an amazing bargain - but that is what Gain Capital (GCAP) constitutes today. GCAP, a forex-focused retail CFD platform, agreed to sell itself for $6/share in cash to FC Stone (INTL), in late February this … Continue reading Gain Capital: deal recut highly likely, option-like upside payout in 3 weeks

Raper Capital is going Pro

I am excited to announce the launch of Raper Capital Pro. Going forward, the majority of content you would normally find on RaperCapital.com will be behind a paywall, for the benefit of Pro subscribers. If you are ready to subscribe, you can do so here – thank you for your support! IMPORTANT: Please make sure … Continue reading Raper Capital is going Pro

Metlifecare: heads I win big, tails I don’t lose (or better)

Thesis summary: Metlifecare (MET), a New Zealand-listed retirement village operator, is a highly attractive, 'heads I win big, tails I don't lose' type of investment. EQT, the Swedish private equity powerhouse, is attempting to reneg on a recently-agreed takeover of MET at $7/share - a 68% premium to the current quote ($4.16) - by claiming the onset … Continue reading Metlifecare: heads I win big, tails I don’t lose (or better)

Nio update: restructuring deal implies max $1.3/shr of ADR value…

Everyone's least favorite electric car manufacturer, Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO), is at it again. Yesterday they announced their long-awaited capital partnership with the local Hefei government; the stock promptly rallied 20%, before fading to close +10%. A closer look at the terms of the transaction, however, suggest a horrible deal for current ADR owners. I … Continue reading Nio update: restructuring deal implies max $1.3/shr of ADR value…

Bright Horizons Family Solutions: pre- and post-COVID, major trouble ahead

Trading at 21x LTM (pre-COVID) EV/EBITDA and 33x FCF, the market views Bright Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM), the child-care center operator, as a secular growth story largely untouched by the current maelstrom. Prima facie, this seems justified, as the business has put up high-single-digit revenue/low-double-digit EBIT growth CAGRs over the last decade; sports impressive returns … Continue reading Bright Horizons Family Solutions: pre- and post-COVID, major trouble ahead