A month ago I broke down the Nio/Hefei transaction that purported to put a high valuation on Nio's China business, suggesting that US investors and bondholders were probably being fleeced. With the release of Nio's 20-F annual filing, we can now definitively conclude that the Hefei 'Strategic Transaction' is nothing more than an asset strip, … Continue reading More on NIO: the devil is in the details
Thesis summary: Metlifecare (MET), a New Zealand-listed retirement village operator, is a highly attractive, 'heads I win big, tails I don't lose' type of investment. EQT, the Swedish private equity powerhouse, is attempting to reneg on a recently-agreed takeover of MET at $7/share - a 68% premium to the current quote ($4.16) - by claiming the onset … Continue reading Metlifecare: heads I win big, tails I don’t lose (or better)
Everyone's least favorite electric car manufacturer, Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO), is at it again. Yesterday they announced their long-awaited capital partnership with the local Hefei government; the stock promptly rallied 20%, before fading to close +10%. A closer look at the terms of the transaction, however, suggest a horrible deal for current ADR owners. I … Continue reading Nio update: restructuring deal implies max $1.3/shr of ADR value…
Trading at 21x LTM (pre-COVID) EV/EBITDA and 33x FCF, the market views Bright Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM), the child-care center operator, as a secular growth story largely untouched by the current maelstrom. Prima facie, this seems justified, as the business has put up high-single-digit revenue/low-double-digit EBIT growth CAGRs over the last decade; sports impressive returns … Continue reading Bright Horizons Family Solutions: pre- and post-COVID, major trouble ahead
A week or so ago I went through a grab-bag of bargains out there; the market has kept rallying so some/all of those are all a good deal higher. I'm actually fairly bearish on the broader market as I think price action of late looks very much like a prototypical bear market rally. It seems … Continue reading What I’m buying now – part 2
I previously wrote up a hodge-podge of ideas I consider highly attractive at the moment, for those with a multi-year holding period and not beholden to the margin clerk (see here). I also mentioned there is a TON of interesting stuff out there at the moment, across the capital structure; the Aercap junior subordinated perps … Continue reading Aercap prefs: how cheap is cheap enough?
I've been adding a decent amount of long risk the last couple of weeks. Now, if you believe Covid-19 is 'the big one' - that is, some kind of quasi-Armageddon event that will permanently scar humanity and change how we live forever and always - then you should not be buying anything beyond canned soup, … Continue reading What I’m buying now