Tupperware Brands: the bonds have (potentially a lot) further to fall

I posted a tweet thread a week or so ago on Tupperware Brands (TUP) - you can see the thread here, but the thesis was essentially that the short-dated Jun'21 TUP bonds ($600mm outstanding), then at 99.5c, didn't anywhere discount the possibility of a needed restructuring of the company, given the leverage picture; the deterioration … Continue reading Tupperware Brands: the bonds have (potentially a lot) further to fall

Shinoken update: the story keeps getting better, still a double and more

I wrote up Shinoken (8909.JT, listed in Tokyo) here about 6 months ago. At the time the stock was trading at <4x earnings, <3x EV/EBIT and at a considerable discount to replacement cost, due to the overhang of a number of scandals in the build-to-let apartment industry in Japan and a misunderstanding of the company's … Continue reading Shinoken update: the story keeps getting better, still a double and more

McDermott defaulted debt: a compelling speculation

Summary: I am long the McDermott 10.625% ’24 defaulted senior notes, which trade around 12.5-13c currently. At this level I believe you are creating the recapitalized MDR equity at a low multiple of likely trough EBIT/EBITDA in FY21E – 4x EV/EBITDA, 5x EV/EBIT – with a free look at bargain basement multiples (1.5x EV/EBITDA, 1/7x … Continue reading McDermott defaulted debt: a compelling speculation

How I find shorts – podcast with Jan Svenda

I recently appeared on Jan Svenda's podcast, World of Short Selling. You can find the link here: https://shortselling.podbean.com/e/episode-13-jeremy-raper/ We cover both methodology and a lot of current ideas I like (as well as historical pitfalls, successes, and lessons!) Regular readers will be familiar with some of the names covered, but we discuss Westshore, Nio, Tesla, … Continue reading How I find shorts – podcast with Jan Svenda

Random thoughts on the internal inconsistency of the stockmarket

I own shares in Aercap (NYSE: AER), the largest aircraft lessor in the world, for many reasons (some of which I have discussed here and here on this blog, for example). This is not an article about AER so much as an article about dispersion and inconsistency in how the market is pricing various sectors … Continue reading Random thoughts on the internal inconsistency of the stockmarket

Westshore update: the writing is on the wall

I first wrote up Westshore Terminals (Toronto: WTE) as a short in March last year. You can read the article here. The thesis was basically that this formerly-excellent coal-handling business would be structurally impaired once Teck Resources, a 60% customer, moved the bulk of their volumes to their own terminal, Neptune, from 2021; and that … Continue reading Westshore update: the writing is on the wall

GAN Plc: explosive mid-term growth + attractive technical setup still not priced in

Rarely do I still own, let alone write up, stocks that have doubled in a couple of months,  so Gan Plc (LSE: GAN) is very much an exception for me. But what would you pay for a software services company growing revenues >100%; where >50% of those revenues are already recurring in nature; where the … Continue reading GAN Plc: explosive mid-term growth + attractive technical setup still not priced in