Due to the enthusiastic response to my first missive on NIO, I thought I would delight all my fans 🙂 with a quick follow-up post the 20-F (annual report) filing today. Here are my main takeaways; the overarching conclusion remains 'alarm bells are ringing' and if anything I think the cash needs at the company … Continue reading NIO follow-up: fun and games in the 20-F
Author: puppyeh
NIO: this will end in tears
Forget where the stock has come from and the fact that it is already down 50% from the highs. NIO (NIO, listed on the NYSE), the recently-listed Chinese BEV name, is a hype-driven, cash-incinerating JOBS-act IPO that may qualify as the best poster child for ZIRP's distortionary capital allocation effect when the history books get … Continue reading NIO: this will end in tears
Stranded on the Westshore
Westshore Terminals (WTE, listed in Toronto), is by all appearances an amazing business. Located just south of Vancouver, WTE operates one of the largest coal export terminals in the world, loading around 30 million tons (mt) per year while operating almost continuously, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, either from trains arriving directly … Continue reading Stranded on the Westshore
Tesla unsecured debt: recovery tops out at ~30c (if you’re lucky)
I'm dusting off the cleats (yes, it's been a while), as I've had a large number of incoming questions regarding what happens to Tesla (TSLA) unsecured debt if or when they file for bankruptcy. This will not be a post about the long list of existential risks facing TSLA at the moment: there will be … Continue reading Tesla unsecured debt: recovery tops out at ~30c (if you’re lucky)
Bracell: a pretty juicy merger arb play
I don't often pursue merger arbitrage (the practice of buying stocks with announced takeovers pending, and/or shorting the shares of the acquiror, hoping to capture the spread to the deal price if/when the deal closes). I am not an expert in the space, and oftentimes the returns don't justify (to me) the real risk that … Continue reading Bracell: a pretty juicy merger arb play
Capital structure arbitrage: the curious case of Peabody Energy
Peabody Energy (BTU) is a coal company. As most anyone who hasn't had their head in the sand the past couple years will tell you, it is a terrible time to be a coal miner (see here or here for some background - this post is less about the problems facing coal and more an … Continue reading Capital structure arbitrage: the curious case of Peabody Energy
TimkenSteel: imminent dilution is the only way out
When it comes to looking at stocks, I'm a big believer in looking at the business from a credit perspective as a window onto equity valuation. What terms are the lenders extracting for credit and how are creditors protected? What are creditors worried about and how do they think they will get paid back? What … Continue reading TimkenSteel: imminent dilution is the only way out
