How I find shorts – podcast with Jan Svenda

I recently appeared on Jan Svenda's podcast, World of Short Selling. You can find the link here: https://shortselling.podbean.com/e/episode-13-jeremy-raper/ We cover both methodology and a lot of current ideas I like (as well as historical pitfalls, successes, and lessons!) Regular readers will be familiar with some of the names covered, but we discuss Westshore, Nio, Tesla, … Continue reading How I find shorts – podcast with Jan Svenda

Random thoughts on the internal inconsistency of the stockmarket

I own shares in Aercap (NYSE: AER), the largest aircraft lessor in the world, for many reasons (some of which I have discussed here and here on this blog, for example). This is not an article about AER so much as an article about dispersion and inconsistency in how the market is pricing various sectors … Continue reading Random thoughts on the internal inconsistency of the stockmarket

Westshore update: the writing is on the wall

I first wrote up Westshore Terminals (Toronto: WTE) as a short in March last year. You can read the article here. The thesis was basically that this formerly-excellent coal-handling business would be structurally impaired once Teck Resources, a 60% customer, moved the bulk of their volumes to their own terminal, Neptune, from 2021; and that … Continue reading Westshore update: the writing is on the wall

GAN Plc: explosive mid-term growth + attractive technical setup still not priced in

Rarely do I still own, let alone write up, stocks that have doubled in a couple of months,  so Gan Plc (LSE: GAN) is very much an exception for me. But what would you pay for a software services company growing revenues >100%; where >50% of those revenues are already recurring in nature; where the … Continue reading GAN Plc: explosive mid-term growth + attractive technical setup still not priced in

Podcast debut – my investment philosophy, Japanese stocks, AER, Shinoken, GAN, NIO and more with Eric Schleien

I was recently on The Intelligent Investing Podcast with Eric Schleien. Eric is the founder of Granite State Capital Management and a fellow value investor. You can listen to the full episode here. We covered many of the names I think are of most interest at the moment (Aercap, Shinoken, Gan Plc, Nio, etc) as well as my … Continue reading Podcast debut – my investment philosophy, Japanese stocks, AER, Shinoken, GAN, NIO and more with Eric Schleien

Taking stock of 2019: idea performance and thesis updates

Its close enough to year end to check in on how the ideas I've presented during the year have performed, and to update where we stand on the various theses presented. The below table summarizes the overall performance of each idea since publishing, along with benchmark performance, and alpha (outperformance vs the benchmark). Note, this … Continue reading Taking stock of 2019: idea performance and thesis updates

K+S: how hard will the potash downcycle bite?

K+S (SDF, listed in Germany), is a great mid-term structural short, because it is the highest-cost producer of scale in a global commodity market (potash) that is likely entering a multi-year downturn, all while being saddled with an incredibly levered balance sheet (4.5x net/6.2x adjusted) and burning cash. The sources of its uncompetitiveness are largely … Continue reading K+S: how hard will the potash downcycle bite?

Capital structure arbitrage, part deux – the curious case of Nio Inc

I have written about capital structure arbitrage - trading the stock and bonds of one company against each other if the prices don't make internal sense - previously with regard to Peabody Energy when it was about to file for bankruptcy (see here). I commented at the time that the equity price seemed insanely overvalued … Continue reading Capital structure arbitrage, part deux – the curious case of Nio Inc

Shinoken: this is what value looks like

You have to be prepared to look in some strange places to find cheap stocks these days, and one of them is small-cap Japan. This can be a pain for a number of reasons (language, filings/disclosures, liquidity, etc) but what's a guy to do? The S&P chart looks like this: Meanwhile the Topix 1000 (broad-based … Continue reading Shinoken: this is what value looks like

Is the market even semi-form efficient? The Aercap conundrum

Imagine I told you nothing about two different companies except their historical long-term earnings power (net income through the cycle; return on assets/equity %, etc) and capital structure (equity/total assets, debt/total capital, etc). I then told you they were both financial companies dependent upon access to capital markets for funding - making them somewhat comparable … Continue reading Is the market even semi-form efficient? The Aercap conundrum