January was a rough month for stocks in general, with major global averages falling 5-10% and all manner of sectors (oil & gas, REITs, MLPs, etc) punished far more than that. While there have likely been a lot of babies thrown out with the collective bathwater, one under-performing sector that has especially piqued my interest … Continue reading In defense of aircraft leasing (and especially Aercap)
Regular readers will be aware that I have something of a penchant for investing/trading not just with a view to the underlying fundamentals, but also occasionally in advance of behavioral changes that can affect those fundamentals and thus move a given stock. In this vein, I shorted Lumber Liquidators (LL) earlier this year, purely on … Continue reading Behavioral investing case study: short Chipotle
Square (SQ), the San Francisco-based upstart payments processor, is an intriguing company on a number of levels: for one, it's CEO, Jack Dorsey, invented Twitter, has had numerous profiles appear in respected publications like The New Yorker and Wired, and has even been compared to his erstwhile idol, Steve Jobs. But aside from the 'Dorsey … Continue reading Square – does one good idea make a viable business?
The recent Volkswagen (VLKAY) emissions tampering scandal is about the worst thing that can happen to an investor - the kind of idiosyncratic, 'deus ex machina' event that can devastate an investment thesis and yet is both uncontrollable and - for those of us who cannot afford to conduct a road emissions test of a … Continue reading Perspectives on the VW scandal
Quicksilver (ZQK) has been one of my core bearish positions for most of the last year, as I viewed the company's ~$800mm net debt load as unsustainable in the face of interminable secular trends and poor management. I highlighted some of the problems facing the company in a couple of Seeking Alpha articles here, here, … Continue reading Quicksilver: A Quick Post-Mortem
Outside of biotech (where binary outcomes are a dime a dozen), it's rare to see a stock fall 50% in a day, even on horrible earnings - which is why the obliteration of Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM) yesterday more than piqued my interest. RYAM has had a short but tortured stock-market history. The company was … Continue reading Rayonier Advanced Materials: 50% cheaper in one day, but look before you leap
"Everyone loves a comeback" - you've probably heard that phrase applied many times to down-on-their-luck movie stars or sportsmen trying to mount a career resurgence. But the public fascination with comebacks applies equally to the capital markets. In fact, turnaround stories are a necessary product of how the market works every day: the very nature … Continue reading Everyone loves a comeback – but why?