NIO update: still short, still a zero

I have written about NIO (NYSE: NIO), everyone's favorite cash-guzzling EV company, a couple of times (see here, here and here). The company just reported in 4Q'19 numbers and I thought it would be worthy of a check in to see if anything with the original bearish thesis had changed (TL;DR - it's actually worse than before). … Continue reading NIO update: still short, still a zero

Podcast series: Coronavirus investing implications

I went back on Eric Schleien's podcast and will do an ongoing series (5-6 episodes) to discuss how I'm approaching the markets during these turbulent times; and also of course where I think there is value to be had. https://ericschleien.com/podcast/ http://intelligentinvesting.podbean.com Hope everyone is staying safe during this difficult period. As Churchill said, 'If you're … Continue reading Podcast series: Coronavirus investing implications

K+S Update: Is it about to get medieval in the potash market?

I previously wrote up high-cost potash producer, K+S (SDF, listed on the DAX in Germany) last November, contending that the combination of a turn in the potash market; a structurally high-cost set of assets; and a terribly-levered balance sheet with near-term maturities all made for a potent short cocktail. The stock has since fallen ~55% … Continue reading K+S Update: Is it about to get medieval in the potash market?

Hard hats on: buy AER, short BOC Aviation

Every now and then, when markets go haywire and in particular airline/travel stocks get crushed and my beloved Aercap (NYSE: AER) gets obliterated, I pull out my favorite chart. It shows the long-term trend in global air travel, and it looks like this: Doesn't that chart look great? No matter what crisis has occurred - … Continue reading Hard hats on: buy AER, short BOC Aviation