A week or so ago I went through a grab-bag of bargains out there; the market has kept rallying so some/all of those are all a good deal higher. I'm actually fairly bearish on the broader market as I think price action of late looks very much like a prototypical bear market rally. It seems … Continue reading What I’m buying now – part 2
I previously wrote up a hodge-podge of ideas I consider highly attractive at the moment, for those with a multi-year holding period and not beholden to the margin clerk (see here). I also mentioned there is a TON of interesting stuff out there at the moment, across the capital structure; the Aercap junior subordinated perps … Continue reading Aercap prefs: how cheap is cheap enough?
I've been adding a decent amount of long risk the last couple of weeks. Now, if you believe Covid-19 is 'the big one' - that is, some kind of quasi-Armageddon event that will permanently scar humanity and change how we live forever and always - then you should not be buying anything beyond canned soup, … Continue reading What I’m buying now
I have written about NIO (NYSE: NIO), everyone's favorite cash-guzzling EV company, a couple of times (see here, here and here). The company just reported in 4Q'19 numbers and I thought it would be worthy of a check in to see if anything with the original bearish thesis had changed (TL;DR - it's actually worse than before). … Continue reading NIO update: still short, still a zero
I went back on Eric Schleien's podcast and will do an ongoing series (5-6 episodes) to discuss how I'm approaching the markets during these turbulent times; and also of course where I think there is value to be had. https://ericschleien.com/podcast/ http://intelligentinvesting.podbean.com Hope everyone is staying safe during this difficult period. As Churchill said, 'If you're … Continue reading Podcast series: Coronavirus investing implications
I previously wrote up high-cost potash producer, K+S (SDF, listed on the DAX in Germany) last November, contending that the combination of a turn in the potash market; a structurally high-cost set of assets; and a terribly-levered balance sheet with near-term maturities all made for a potent short cocktail. The stock has since fallen ~55% … Continue reading K+S Update: Is it about to get medieval in the potash market?
Every now and then, when markets go haywire and in particular airline/travel stocks get crushed and my beloved Aercap (NYSE: AER) gets obliterated, I pull out my favorite chart. It shows the long-term trend in global air travel, and it looks like this: Doesn't that chart look great? No matter what crisis has occurred - … Continue reading Hard hats on: buy AER, short BOC Aviation
361 Degrees (1361.HK) is an HK-listed Chinese shoe and sports clothing retailer. You can read about the company and see their products here. I stumbled across their 7.25% Jun'21 USD bonds, which currently trade around 93.5 - 13% yield, 1.25 years to maturity - and was expecting to see a highly leveraged, distressed business (like … Continue reading 361 Degrees: June’21 dollar bonds yield 13-14% but should be money good
I posted a tweet thread a week or so ago on Tupperware Brands (TUP) - you can see the thread here, but the thesis was essentially that the short-dated Jun'21 TUP bonds ($600mm outstanding), then at 99.5c, didn't anywhere discount the possibility of a needed restructuring of the company, given the leverage picture; the deterioration … Continue reading Tupperware Brands: the bonds have (potentially a lot) further to fall
I wrote up Shinoken (8909.JT, listed in Tokyo) here about 6 months ago. At the time the stock was trading at <4x earnings, <3x EV/EBIT and at a considerable discount to replacement cost, due to the overhang of a number of scandals in the build-to-let apartment industry in Japan and a misunderstanding of the company's … Continue reading Shinoken update: the story keeps getting better, still a double and more