Taking stock of 2019: idea performance and thesis updates

Its close enough to year end to check in on how the ideas I've presented during the year have performed, and to update where we stand on the various theses presented. The below table summarizes the overall performance of each idea since publishing, along with benchmark performance, and alpha (outperformance vs the benchmark). Note, this … Continue reading Taking stock of 2019: idea performance and thesis updates

Tesla: we’re going to miss you when you’re gone

(Tesla (TSLA) filed their 2Q earnings report last night, and while I really should wait until they file their 10-Q to make this more complete, I really just can't help myself.) In late January, TSLA reported an optically-impressive Q4'18 result (91k deliveries, 24% automotive gross margins, $140mm in net profits), and on the post-Q conference … Continue reading Tesla: we’re going to miss you when you’re gone

Tesla’s unit growth, and the art of spurious comparisons

There's a fairly fundamental concept in most retail industries: the concept of same-store sales ('like-for-like sales', 'equivalent-store sales', 'existing-store sales', etc). This is a pretty intuitive concept, but to recapitulate by example, let's say I'm a McDonald's franchisor, and last year I had 100 stores that did $100mm in revenues ($1mm/store), and sold 250k Big … Continue reading Tesla’s unit growth, and the art of spurious comparisons

Tesla unsecured debt: recovery tops out at ~30c (if you’re lucky)

I'm dusting off the cleats (yes, it's been a while), as I've had a large number of incoming questions regarding what happens to Tesla (TSLA) unsecured debt if or when they file for bankruptcy. This will not be a post about the long list of existential risks facing TSLA at the moment: there will be … Continue reading Tesla unsecured debt: recovery tops out at ~30c (if you’re lucky)